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Home ❯ Bertrand's Box Paradox

Bertrand's Box Paradox

Explore the conditional probability behind Bertrand's three-box paradox.

Bertrand's Box Paradox

Statistics calculator: Choose a box, observe a coin, and estimate the chance that the other coin is gold, or compare the expected outcomes over many rounds.

Mode
P ( GG | gold drawn ) = 2 3

Result

Main result
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Details
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Calculation
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Three open boxes containing gold and gold, silver and silver, and gold and silver coins.
Selected box is highlighted. Each box was equally likely before the choice.
Three possible gold-coin observations, with two leaving another gold coin and one leaving a silver coin.
Conditioning on a gold draw leaves three possible gold-face observations. Two belong to the gold-gold box.

How to use this calculator

Choose a box, observe a coin, and estimate the chance that the other coin is gold, or compare the expected outcomes over many rounds.

  1. Choose the calculation mode and units, when available.
  2. Enter values using the localized examples in the placeholders.
  3. Select Calculate and review the result, steps, and visualization when provided.

Formula and method

P ( GG | gold drawn ) = 2 3

Explore the conditional probability behind Bertrand's three-box paradox.

Worked example

The placeholders provide a reproducible example. Enter them to verify the result before using your own data.

Assumptions and limitations

Values must be finite and use compatible units. Displayed decimals are rounded, while calculations retain full precision.

Frequently asked questions

What does this calculator do?

Explore the conditional probability behind Bertrand's three-box paradox.

Why do fields appear or disappear?

Dependent fields follow the selected method, shape, ingredient, or unit mode.

Are all visible formulas semantic?

Yes. Formulas and structured results use native MathML, with text retained only for labels and copying.

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